What is AI?

Where are we? Where are we going? Why does it matter?

1
Human Computers 1950s

"Computer" used to be a job

Jobs evolve with new tools.

2

Tools are leverage

"A computer is the most remarkable tool that we could ever imagine. It's the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds."

Steve Jobs

Scientific American cover
Efficiency gains chart

Man on bicycle ranks first in efficiency among traveling animals and machines in terms of energy consumed in moving a certain distance as a function of body weight.

3

AI is leverage

The competition is no longer
human vs. human

It's human + AI
vs.
human without AI

4

It is a new type of intelligence

Human Intelligence

Creative, intuitive, wise

But slow. Limited bandwidth.
We forget. We get tired.

Deterministic Computing

Fast. Perfect memory.

But brittle. Only does exactly what you tell it. No judgment.

AI / Stochastic Computing

Handles ambiguity.
Recognizes patterns.

Figures out what you meant, not just what you said.

5
Rainman casino scene

AI is like Rainman

6
Memento - Leonard with tattoos

AI is also like Leonard in Memento

7

So What?

What does this new kind of intelligence
mean for organizations?

8
The Nature of the Firm, 1937

Why do companies exist?

Because markets have friction.

Coordination costs are real.

Ronald Coase

Ronald Coase
Nobel Prize, 1991

9

Information technology pushes down coordination costs

1970s ERPs, mainframes
1980s Desktop computing, relational databases
1990s Office suites, email, networking
2000s Internet, cloud computing
2010s SaaS explosion — hundreds of apps per company

Lower costs mean more complexity can be handled.

More tasks can be coordinated and automated.

Information technology made code the firm's lifeblood.

10

As code went everywhere, it became a bottleneck

Forbes: Is There A Developer Shortage? ZDNET: Developer jobs - Nearly a third of top tech roles remain empty FT: Technology and the Skills Shortage Reveal: Skilled Developer Shortage Among Top Concerns

Sources: Forbes, ZDNET, Financial Times, Reveal

11

And then it wasn't

FRED Chart: Software Development Job Postings on Indeed
12

LLMs collapse the cost of code

This is AI's first killer app

👤

Human

intent
AI

translates

code
⚙️

Systems

AI becomes the integration layer.

We will rebuild the digital infrastructure around it.

13
Andrej Karpathy

Andrej Karpathy

Former Director of AI at Tesla. Founding member of OpenAI.

December 2025

"I've never felt this much behind as a programmer. The profession is being dramatically refactored... I have a sense that I could be 10X more powerful if I just properly string together what has become available over the last ~year."

January 2026 — One month later

"I went from 80% manual coding to 80% agent coding. I'm mostly programming in English now... This is easily the biggest change to my coding workflow in ~2 decades. It happened over a few weeks."

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."

— Vladimir Lenin

14

Slowly, then suddenly

AI Productivity
15

This is now the biggest CAPEX boom in a hundred years

12% vs 88% Divide

Tech capex in 2025 exceeds the Manhattan Project, the Apollo Program, and the Interstate Highway System — combined.

This is not hype.

Capital at this scale reshapes industries.

16

Demand will naturally explode

First, we will see cognitive work shift from biological to silicon. This is a conversion of existing demand.

Then, as compute gets cheaper and new use cases get unlocked, Jevons' paradox kicks in — and demand for compute continues to boom.

Jevons Paradox in the Context of AI
17

For companies, this is still the beginning

CEO confidence in revenue outlook hits five-year low — as AI becomes a defining divide between leaders and laggards: PwC 2026 Global CEO Survey

January 19, 2026

Only three-in-ten (30%) CEOs are confident about revenue growth in 2026 as most struggle to turn AI investment into tangible returns.

One-in-eight (12%) CEOs say AI has delivered both cost and revenue benefits, while companies that have scaled AI with strong foundations are pulling ahead.

What impact did AI have in the last 12 months?

Cost
Decrease No change Increase
1%
13%
12%
0%
42%
8%
1%
12%
9%
Decrease No change Increase

Revenue

18

So this is where we are now

CEO chant meme: Who are we? CEOs. What do we want? AI. AI to do what? We don't know. When do we want it? Right now.

The challenge is now bridging the gap

19

Tasks get automated, not jobs

Adoption will happen in three phases:

1. AI helps you complete some tasks.

2. AI completes the tasks for you.

3. AI does tasks that you could not do before.

20

Phase 1

AI helps you complete some tasks

You drive, AI accelerates

Writing, editing, and summarizing.
Code completion and review.
Data analysis and visualization.
Meeting transcription and action items.
Research assistance and translation.

GitHub Copilot
GitHub Copilot
ChatGPT
ChatGPT
Claude
Claude
Microsoft Copilot
Microsoft Copilot
Cursor
Cursor
Google Gemini
Google Gemini
21

Phase 2

AI completes the tasks for you

AI drives, you supervise

Autonomous customer support.
End-to-end code generation from specs.
Document processing and reconciliation.
Automated reporting and analytics.
Enterprise data integration and action.

Salesforce Agentforce
Salesforce
ServiceNow
ServiceNow
Intercom Fin
Intercom Fin
Devin
Devin
Klarna AI
Klarna AI
Harvey
Harvey
Palantir
Palantir
22

Phase 3

AI does tasks you could not do before

New possibilities arise

Protein structure prediction.
Drug discovery at molecular level.
Autonomous driving.
New media generation (image, video).
Pattern recognition across impossible data scales.

Isomorphic
Isomorphic
Recursion
Recursion
Waymo
Waymo
Midjourney
Midjourney
Runway
Runway
Palantir
Palantir
23

Skills for the agentic workplace

Prompt Thinking

Oversight & Judgment

Workflow Design

Data Literacy

Problem Decomposition

Domain Expertise

Adaptability

None of these are "how to code" or "how to build AI."

They're about how to work with AI. Adaptability is the meta-skill — because the tools keep changing.

24

The real challenges

This must be a C-suite priority

IT will freeze the ground around it if not driven from the top.
This is a change management issue as much as a technology issue.

Nobody knows anything (yet)

These are new tools that few know how to use well.
We're early in the game — mistakes are expected and valuable.

AI must come from within

Cannot be bought "out of the box."
Must unlock and leverage YOUR organization's unique tribal knowledge.

The tools change with scale

What powers one person may not power a team.
What powers a team may not power the organization.

Organization
Team
Person
25

A glimpse of what's ahead

LLMs → VLMs → VLAs → Recursive Self-Improvement

LLMs: Read and write (GPT, Claude)

VLMs: See + understand

VLAs: See + understand + act

Next: Agents that improve themselves through reasoning

The pace of change is accelerating, not slowing.

26
Jensen Huang on MSNBC
"You're not going to lose your job to AI. You're going to lose your job to someone who uses AI."

Jensen Huang

CEO, Nvidia

27
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